Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
